The Fantasy 32 analyzes the NFL from a fantasy perspective, with at the least one point out of every of the league’s 32 groups. Although effectivity will probably be mentioned loads, the column will lean closely on utilization knowledge, as quantity is king (by far) in fantasy soccer. Use these tidbits to make the very best waiver-wire, commerce and lineup choices for the upcoming week and past. You’ll want to examine again every week of the season for a brand new model of the Fantasy 32.
All through the under team-by-team rundowns, I will be referencing “OFP” and “OTD.” OFP stands for opportunity-adjusted fantasy factors. Think about a league during which gamers are created equal. OFP is a statistic that weighs each go/carry/goal and converts the information into one quantity that signifies a participant’s alternative to attain fantasy factors, or his “anticipated” fantasy level whole. For instance, if a participant has an OFP of 14.5, it signifies that a league common participant who noticed the identical workload in the identical location on the sector would have scored 14.5 fantasy factors. FORP is the distinction between a participant’s precise fantasy level whole and his OFP. OTD works the identical approach, besides as a substitute of fantasy factors, it is touchdowns. Quantity is king in fantasy soccer, so this isn’t data you need to overlook.
That stated, right here is the post-Week 12 OFP Leaderboard:
Week 12 OFP Leaderboard
|1. Christian McCaffrey, RB||34||36||-2|
|2. Leonard Fournette, RB||37||36||1|
|3. Mitchell Trubisky, QB||19||28||-9|
|4. Calvin Ridley, WR||22||26||-4|
|5. Allen Robinson II, WR||25||25||0|
|6. Jarvis Landry, WR||37||25||12|
|7. Zach Ertz, TE||27||23||4|
|8. Terry McLaurin, WR||12||22||-10|
|9. Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB||23||22||1|
|10. Marvin Jones Jr., WR||10||22||-12|
Subsequent, listed here are the gamers who exceeded their OFP by the most important margin this previous week and are thus candidates to see a dip in fantasy manufacturing shifting ahead, assuming they see the same workload:
Exceeded their OFP by the most important margin in Week 12
|1. Ryan Tannehill, QB||32||11||21|
|2. Chris Godwin, WR||37||17||20|
|3. Derrick Henry, RB||29||12||17|
|4. A.J. Brown, WR||24||8||16|
|5. George Kittle, TE||25||11||14|
|6. DJ Moore, WR||31||18||14|
|7. Jarvis Landry, WR||37||25||12|
|8. DeAndre Hopkins, WR||27||15||12|
|9. Rashaad Penny, RB||19||8||11|
|10. Jameis Winston, QB||24||15||10|
And these are the gamers who fell wanting their OFP by the most important margin final week, and thus you should not be too fast to overreact to their efficiency when making lineup, commerce or waiver choices:
Following a comparatively quiet begin to the season and a few growth/bust performances over the previous month or so, Kyler Murray is at present the No. 5 scoring fantasy quarterback. Murray has completed 5 of his previous seven outings as a top-seven fantasy quarterback, although he did combine in a pair of finishes outdoors the highest 20. A lift in scoring has been the important thing to the rookie’s step ahead. Arizona’s offense totaled eight touchdowns throughout its first 5 video games (1.6 per recreation), however 16 throughout its previous six outings (2.7 per recreation). The latter included at the least three scores in 5 of the six video games. Murray is locked in as QB1 shifting ahead, together with his speeding manufacturing (67-418-3) supplying him a excessive flooring.
The Falcons took a step ahead defensively throughout their Week 9 bye, however the wheels appear to have fallen off a bit offensively. Matt Ryan opened the 2019 season with 300-plus yards in six-consecutive video games, including at the least two touchdowns in 5 of these video games. Ryan has reached 300 yards as soon as in 4 video games since, totaling three touchdowns and three interceptions throughout the span. That features a Week 12 efficiency during which he didn’t throw a single landing in opposition to a Buccaneers protection that entered the sport having allowed 25 in 10 video games. The Atlanta offense hasn’t scored greater than two touchdowns in a recreation since Week 6. Ryan must be on benches in opposition to the Saints in Week 13.
Response coming Tuesday.
Devin Singletary was on the sector for 70% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps on Sunday. The rookie racked up a career-high 106 yards on 21 carries and added Eight yards on a pair of targets, which helped him to his fourth top-20 fantasy week of the season. Sport script helped Frank Gore to 15 carries, although the veteran again was restricted to solely 22 snaps (30% share). Singletary has out-snapped Gore in 5 consecutive video games and enjoys a 220-to-98 edge within the class throughout the span. Singletary hasn’t scored throughout his previous three video games, however he does have at the least 79 scrimmage yards in three of his previous 4 outings. Singletary’s clear lead again standing, position as the first receiving again and powerful effectivity (5.Eight YPC) are sufficient to qualify him as a strong flex throughout Buffalo’s upcoming powerful stretch.
DJ Moore entered Week 12 with three profession touchdowns on 117 touches (5.2 OTD). Regardless of that, Moore additionally entered the week within the midst of a breakout second season and with the 17th-most fantasy factors amongst extensive receivers. The Maryland product lastly put all of it collectively in opposition to New Orleans with a 6-126-2 receiving line on 9 targets. Moore has now managed 95-plus yards in 4 consecutive video games and has been focused at the least eight occasions in 9 of 11 video games this season. Moore’s utilization suggests he will not be a constant contributor within the landing division, however his huge goal share (26%) can proceed to assist fringe WR1 numbers.
Since placing up 147 yards and one landing on 31 touches again in Week 8, David Montgomery has didn’t clear 60 yards in a single recreation and has a complete of two touchdowns (each got here in Week 9) throughout the four-game span. Montgomery has struggled with effectivity, averaging 3.5 yards per carry or worse throughout 9 of his 11 video games. In truth, the rookie’s 3.33 YPC is fourth-worst and his 55% catch price second-worst amongst operating backs. On the plus facet, Montgomery has managed at the least 13 carries in 5 consecutive video games and has dealt with at the least three targets in 5 of his previous six outings. That is simply sufficient to maintain him within the flex dialogue shifting ahead.
Ryan Finley has made three NFL begins and the rookie has didn’t clear 192 yards or one landing in any of them. Finley is averaging 158.Zero passing yards per recreation and has scored two touchdowns to go together with a pair of interceptions. Finley has added some worth together with his legs (77 yards on 10 carries), however that hasn’t been sufficient to permit him a weekly fantasy end higher than 17th. Finley has accomplished an atrocious 47% of his passes and is clearly effectively off the fantasy radar. Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon are the one Bengals who must be thought-about for lineups.
Jarvis Landry posted a 10-148-2 receiving line on 13 targets in a “Revenge Sport” in opposition to the Dolphins on Sunday. Certain, Landry’s finest recreation of the season got here with added motivation, however high-end manufacturing has develop into a theme for the slot receiver. Landry has now scored in 4 consecutive video games and has dealt with 10-plus targets in 4 of his previous 5 outings. Landry has reached 62 receiving yards in seven of his 12 video games and now sits 13th amongst extensive receivers in fantasy factors. Cleveland will play what’s arguably the league’s best remaining schedule, which units up Landry (and Odell Beckham Jr.) for loads of massive video games the remainder of the best way. Landry ought to clearly be locked into lineups.
After catching at the least one go throughout his first 21 video games with the Cowboys, Amari Cooper was held off the stat sheet in New England on Sunday. Cooper was focused solely twice after seeing at the least 5 targets in the entire aforementioned video games other than Week 6, when he left damage after three snaps. Cooper has now produced back-to-back duds, although he was restricted by harm to 56% of the snaps and was shadowed by Darius Slay in Week 11 (38 yards on eight targets) and was shut down by Stephon Gilmore and the Patriots’ No. 1 protection in opposition to extensive receivers this previous week. Cooper performed 80% of the snaps Sunday, which clearly alleviates considerations about his well being shifting ahead. That stated, Cooper has one other powerful matchup with shadow protection in opposition to Tre’Davious White in Week 13. He’ll even have his fingers full with Chicago in Week 14 and Jalen Ramsey in Week 15, although the Eagles current a greater matchup throughout championship time in Week 16. Cooper’s schedule is a purple flag, however the mixture of his heavy workload (22% goal share) and Dallas’ high-scoring offense (3.Zero touchdowns per recreation) is sufficient to maintain him within the weekly top-20 combine.
Courtland Sutton had a uncommon dud Sunday, struggling to at least one catch for 27 yards on eight targets. After all, the underwhelming efficiency was hardly sudden in a brutal matchup in opposition to the Payments’ terrific go protection and particularly Tre’Davious White. Previous to the dud, Sutton had produced at the least 72 yards or a landing in eight consecutive video games and in 9 of 10 video games on the season. Sutton technically has a troublesome matchup in opposition to Casey Hayward Jr. in Week 13, although he did catch a 70-yard landing in the identical state of affairs again in Week 5. Sutton stays a advantageous WR2 throughout a formidable breakout season.
Week 12 provided us with additional proof that Bo Scarbrough is the clear lead again in Detroit. The second-year again performed 49% of the snaps and racked up 98 yards on 18 carries. Ty Johnson (27% snap share) and J.D. McKissic (15%) have been additionally concerned, however they mixed for 41 yards on 9 touches. Scarbrough has carried the ball 32 occasions throughout his two video games with Detroit, although he has zero catches on one goal throughout the span. Paying homage to Gus Edwards down the stretch final season, Scarbrough’s heavy speeding quantity and the occasional landing retains him within the flex dialogue (particularly in non-PPR leagues), however a close to non-existent receiving position severely limits his fantasy upside.
Inexperienced Bay Packers
Geronimo Allison has labored as Inexperienced Bay’s No. 2 extensive receiver since Davante Adams returned in Week 9, however that merely hasn’t led to a lot manufacturing. Allison trails Adams by solely 23 snaps and 22 go routes, however he has seen solely 9 targets throughout the span. Allison hasn’t cleared 4 targets, three receptions or 21 yards in a recreation since Week 7, nor has he discovered the tip zone since Week 4. Aaron Jones and Adams are the one Packers who must be locked into lineups each week.
Will Fuller V posted a 7-140-Zero receiving line whereas dealing with 11 targets in opposition to the Colts in Week 12. Excluding a Week 7 recreation during which he went down with an harm after three snaps, Fuller has now reached double digit targets in three consecutive video games. Fuller sits eighth at extensive receiver in common depth of goal (14.8) after ending prime 4 within the class every of his first two NFL seasons. Fuller has been growth/bust as ordinary this season, failing to clear 51 yards in 4 full video games but additionally posting a pair of 20-plus level performances. Fuller’s heavy latest utilization in Houston’s high-scoring offense makes him a viable WR2 shifting ahead.
With Marlon Mack sidelined in Week 12, Jonathan Williams was the Colts’ clear function again. The journeyman was on the sector for 66% of the snaps and racked up 29 touches. Williams was held to 121 yards however discovered the tip zone, which helped him to a robust fantasy evening. Nyheim Hines performed 34% of the snaps and produced 61 yards on 11 touches. Jordan Wilkins was restricted to at least one offensive snap (a Jacoby Brissett sack) and dedicated a particular workforce’s penalty, which seemingly led to a benching. It seems Williams has slotted into the Mack position, so if the Colts’ lead again stays out, Williams will probably be a fringe RB2. Which will appear low contemplating his Week 12 workload, however keep in mind that the superior Mack was held to at least one prime 12 fantasy week via Week 11 and that got here approach again in Week 1.
The Jaguars acquired crushed by Tennessee on Sunday, however hidden within the blowout was some critical landing regression to the imply for Leonard Fournette. Getting into Week 12 because the league’s unluckiest operating again within the landing division, Fournette had registered just one rating regardless of 230 touches and a 5.Four OTD. Towards the Titans, Fournette racked up 159 yards and two touchdowns on 33 touches. The massive day vaults him to fifth amongst operating backs in fantasy factors for the season. He is but to submit a weekly end worse than 27th and has six top-12 weekly finishes. Word that, even after the massive recreation, Fournette stays the league’s unluckiest again within the scoring division with three touchdowns and a 7.1 OTD. Nonetheless, Fournette is averaging an enormous 18.7 carries and 6.1 targets per recreation and is locked in as a high-end RB1.
Kansas Metropolis Chiefs
After accounting for 52 touchdowns in 16 regular-season video games throughout his MVP 2018 season, Patrick Mahomes has scored 19 touchdowns in 9 video games (or 18 in eight full video games) this season. Mahomes’ full-game tempo places him in line for 30.25 whole touchdowns in 14 video games, assuming he performs the Chiefs’ ultimate 5 video games in full. Mahomes continues to be taking part in at a really excessive degree, however he’s one more instance of an elite participant being unable to maintain Corridor of Fame degree numbers over a big pattern. Mahomes has completed 4 weeks as a top-five fantasy quarterback but additionally completed 11th or decrease throughout his different 4 outings. Regardless of the dip in manufacturing and inconsistent fantasy output, Mahomes stays a weekly should begin, although take note the Chiefs’ offense is about for a brutal schedule throughout Weeks 14-17 (at NE, vs. DEN, at CHI, vs. LAC).
Los Angeles Chargers
Keenan Allen went via a irritating hunch via the center of the fantasy common season, however he seems to be again on monitor because the playoffs close to. Allen opened 2019 with weekly finishes of seventh, 16th and second earlier than ending six consecutive weeks outdoors the highest 30. He entered the Chargers’ bye off finishes of 16th and ninth throughout Weeks 10-11. Fantasy’s No. 12 wideout has dealt with 10 or extra targets in seven of 11 video games this season, together with 4 of his previous 5. Allen’s 7.Four yards per goal is his worst since 2014, however averaging 9.Eight targets per recreation will probably be greater than sufficient to maintain him within the weekly WR1 dialogue.
Los Angeles Rams
Response coming Tuesday.
It took a number of weeks longer than it ought to have, however the Dolphins lastly modified up the backfield dynamic in Week 12. Kalen Ballage struggled because the function again early, however performed a lowered position later within the recreation and ended up on the sector for 39% of the snaps. That led to extra work for Patrick Laird (35% snap share) and Myles Gaskin (26%). The trio mixed for 43 yards on 14 carries and 20 yards on three targets, which tells you what you might want to find out about this backfield. None must be rostered and definitely none of them must be in lineups in opposition to a very good Eagles run protection in Week 13.
Adam Thielen has performed a grand whole of 15 snaps resulting from harm throughout Minnesota’s previous 5 video games. Throughout that span, Kyle Rudolph has posted a 20-179-5 receiving line on 24 targets and is fantasy’s No. 2 scoring tight finish. Although the fantasy manufacturing has been good, the low goal and yardage numbers, in addition to the heavy reliance on touchdowns must be alarming. That is particularly the case with Thielen and his 27% goal share due again after the workforce’s Week 12 bye. Rudolph posted a 9-72-Zero line on 11 targets throughout the six video games Thielen performed in full. Rudolph will get you the occasional rating, however he is finest considered as a TE2 shifting ahead.
New England Patriots
Mohamed Sanu and Phillip Dorsett have been sidelined Sunday, which opened the door for rookies N’Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers to each set career-high marks in taking part in time. Harry performed 80% of the snaps, was focused 4 occasions and scored on his solely catch. Meyers performed 77% of the snaps and posted a 4-74-Zero line on 9 targets. Julian Edelman is the one Patriots extensive receiver who must be locked into lineups proper now, and Sanu will probably be on the WR3 radar as soon as wholesome. That stated, Harry’s first-round pedigree and early-career flashes are sufficient to warrant consideration for a bench spot in 12-team leagues. Harry and Meyers will probably be shaky flex choices in deeper leagues in opposition to Houston this week if Dorsett and Sanu stay out.
New Orleans Saints
After scoring 31 touchdowns throughout his first 31 NFL video games, Alvin Kamara has discovered the tip zone solely twice and has gone six consecutive video games with no rating this season. Regardless of the scoring hunch, Kamara has been a robust fantasy asset. He is produced at the least 89 scrimmage yards in six of 9 video games and has additionally dealt with at the least eight targets in six of 9 video games. Kamara has posted contact totals of 23 and 20 throughout his previous two video games and hasn’t completed decrease than 11th amongst operating backs in fantasy factors throughout his previous three outings. He clearly stays a robust weekly RB1.
New York Giants
Sterling Shepard returned from a concussion Sunday and was on the sector for 95% of New York’s snaps. That is in comparison with 84% for Darius Slayton, 83% for Golden Tate and 16% for Cody Latimer. Shepard was held to a 5-15-Zero receiving line however was focused a team-high 9 occasions and added some worth with a 22-yard rush. Shepard’s utilization present loads of optimism, although Evan Engram is predicted again quickly and it is obvious that rookie Slayton (team-high 67 yards on Sunday) will stay an enormous a part of the offense. Take into account Shepard a WR3.
New York Jets
Robby Anderson posted a 4-86-1 receiving line on 5 targets Sunday and has now discovered the tip zone in back-to-back video games. Regardless of the improved manufacturing, Anderson will nonetheless be very onerous to suggest for fantasy lineups most weeks. Anderson has caught fewer than two passes in 4 of his previous six video games, together with three of his previous 4. The free-agent-to-be has reached 80 receiving yards in three of his 11 video games this season, however he has 43 or fewer yards within the different eight video games. Anderson has some flex attraction in opposition to the Bengals and Dolphins over the following two weeks, however the Ravens, Steelers and Payments current more durable challenges throughout the ultimate three weeks.
Jalen Richard posted season-high marks in targets (seven) and receptions (six) throughout Sunday’s loss to the Jets. Regardless of producing his finest fantasy level whole of the season, Richard stays effectively off the fantasy radar. Josh Jacobs’ backup has cleared two carries in just one recreation this season, and Sunday marked his first recreation with greater than 4 targets or receptions. Richard caught 68 passes and was fantasy’s No. 29 operating again in 2018, however he’s on tempo for 36 catches and sits 56th in fantasy in 2019. He is not near the fantasy radar.
With Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor each sidelined Sunday, the Eagles’ extensive receiver utilization was as follows: Jordan Matthews (99% of 71 potential snaps, six targets), JJ Arcega-Whiteside (73%, 5), Greg Ward (49%, seven) and Mack Hollins (3%, zero). Eagles tight ends mixed for 22 of the workforce’s 45 targets within the recreation. Jeffery and Agholor have been each near taking part in in opposition to Seattle and are first rate bets to return in Week 13, but when they continue to be out, no Eagles receiver will make for a secure play. After all, Matthews, Arcega-Whiteside and Ward can be advantageous flex dart-throws in deeper leagues in opposition to a struggling Miami protection.
James Conner was out once more for the Steelers on Sunday, however this time it wasn’t Jaylen Samuels choosing up the slack. Pittsburgh turned to rookie Benny Snell (49% snap share) as its lead again, with Samuels (28%), Trey Edmunds (18%) and Kerrith Whyte (10%) additionally concerned. Snell racked up 103 yards on 22 touches (one reception), and it seems he’ll be the workforce’s lead rusher so long as Conner is sidelined. Samuels produced 32 yards on 5 touches (three receptions) and is now effectively off the fantasy radar. The identical will be stated for Whyte, although he improved his dynasty inventory with 43 yards on six carries. Snell must be certainly one of your prime priorities on waivers this week, as he’ll be a viable flex in opposition to Cleveland if Conner stays out.
San Francisco 49ers
Tevin Coleman discovered the tip zone early in opposition to Inexperienced Bay on Sunday evening and has now scored seven touchdowns in 9 video games this season. Coleman is averaging 13.6 carries and three.Zero targets per recreation in eight outings since getting back from harm in Week 5. The veteran again has benefited from a 49ers offense that’s run-heaviest within the league (49.8% run), sits fifth in snaps (66.5 per recreation) and ranks second in touchdowns (3.2 per recreation). Coleman additionally occurs to be the workforce’s go-to weapon close to the aim line. His 6.Zero OTD simply leads the workforce, with George Kittle subsequent closest at 3.3. In truth, Coleman’s 5.9 OTD since getting back from harm in Week 5 is sixth highest in your complete NFL, and he additionally ranks eighth amongst backs in fantasy factors throughout the span. Coleman is within the weekly RB2 dialogue.
Rashaad Penny exploded for 129 yards and one landing on 14 carries in opposition to the Eagles on Sunday. Penny was within the combine all through the sport, however actually benefited from a pair of Chris Carson fumbles within the fourth quarter when the second-year again was on the sector for 78% of the offensive snaps. In whole, Carson, who registered 57 yards on 12 touches, performed 30 snaps, in comparison with 27 for Penny. Carson has sufficient of a monitor report that he figures to stay the lead again, however Penny’s robust recreation and pedigree (he was a first-round choose final yr, in any case) figures to result in a bigger position. Carson must be a considered as a top-15 play, and Penny, who was focused solely as soon as on Sunday, is finest left on benches in opposition to Minnesota in Week 13.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Every week after setting a profession excessive with 14 targets and hauling in 10 passes, Cameron Brate returned to situational duties in opposition to Atlanta on Sunday. Brate was on the sector for 32% of Tampa Bay’s snaps and was held with no catch on his solely goal. O.J. Howard, in the meantime, performed 79% of the snaps and posted a 1-10-Zero receiving line on two targets. Howard has one landing and has cleared 47 yards in a single recreation this season, and Brate is his backup. Neither tight finish must be on fantasy rosters.
The Titans scored six offensive touchdowns Sunday and now have 19 touchdowns throughout Ryan Tannehill’s 5 begins. For perspective, that 3.Eight per-game common is increased than the three.6 per recreation the league-leading Ravens are averaging on the season. It is also a lot increased than the 1.Eight per recreation the workforce averaged throughout Marcus Mariota’s six begins to open the season. Tannehill was chargeable for 4 touchdowns Sunday and now has two or extra scores in every of his 5 begins. The high-end manufacturing has allowed him 4 consecutive top-10 fantasy campaigns. Tannehill is clearly price an add, although he is a dangerous begin this week with Tennessee headed to Indianapolis. You may most likely discover 12 higher choices with all 32 groups again in play. Word that Tannehill tried solely 18 passes throughout an unsustainably environment friendly Week 12 blowout win.
Derrius Guice paced the Washington backfield by taking part in 40% of the offensive snaps on Sunday. That is in comparison with 35% for Adrian Peterson and 28% for Wendell Smallwood. It marks the second consecutive week that Guice has out-snapped Peterson, although Guice’s manufacturing wasn’t significantly good this time round (38 yards on 11 touches). Peterson was restricted to 49 yards on 11 touches, and Smallwood touched the ball solely as soon as. Guice stays the popular play right here, however none of those backs are dependable fantasy starters, particularly after failing to supply in opposition to a Detroit protection that entered the week having allowed essentially the most fantasy factors to the place.